The ‘Hipster Stage’ of a Recovery
2020 has been unlike any year we’ve had before, but there are telltale signs that foreground bleakness is tinting the gorgeous horizon sitting behind it.
Victoria’s coronavirus management has been perceived as a quasi ‘traffic light strategy’, with restrictions being enhanced and repealed more frequently than some of us can keep track. Contrary to popular local belief, this is not a solely Victorian issue. Premature lifting of temporary anti-spreading and social distancing laws has seen ‘second waves’ sprout globally, with countries and individual regions enjoying the fruits of their governance. Various methods of containing the invisible enemy have been implemented, with some being praised almost as vocally as those that have been criticised.
Glancing at the USA from afar, it’s abundantly clear that the nation’s economic performance has been prioritised in attempts to keep the nation’s businesses ticking and its citizens employed. The S&P 500’s performance is a rather accurate reflection of such a stance, tracking at record levels in spite of ever-rising total cases of infection (approx. 5.6 million) and death toll (approx. 174,000) attributed to COVID-19.
On a much smaller, local scale, it appears that the Andrews government aims to emulate such positive economic growth while having it not come at the cost of a multitude of Victorian lives. With ‘Stage 4’ strategies in place, the curve does appear to be re-flattening, positioning us closer to where we stood coming out of the ‘first wave’. If anything, the first outbreak has served as a lesson to a state government that does not wish to send its citizens back into lockdown in attempts to eradicate the virus. As we wade deeper into the 6-week Stage 4 period, sentiment appears to be growing across the board. To many, it has been the necessary inconvenience that should have been implemented far sooner.
This is where the ‘Hipster stage’ comes in. Due to be announced on September 2nd, predictions for this quarter’s GDP growth place it at around the -0.3% mark, the same decline as the June quarter. It’s quite possible that all those brand-new financial market hobbyists who have taken up trading to cure their isolation-prompted boredom will be blinded by the red on their screen, seeing an economy with a vendetta that’s stealing their money. The ‘Hipsters’ on the other hand will see a landscape they judge to be ‘cool’ before anyone else. They’ll foresee restriction repeals, newfound company productivity and the potential for a vaccine, enabling the nation to kick back into gear and achieve a result closer to its 0.75-1% quarterly growth goal. This target would require the go-ahead from authorities, both state and federal, to resume regular daily life but we might just be closer than you think.
Victorians are well-and-truly ready to return to normalcy and we are anticipating a surge in parties looking to transact in the real estate market come spring. As always, vendors who have been waiting for warmer months to sell will be looking to market their properties to a large buyer pool that has been starved of stock and can access finance at record lows. Additionally, there is likely to be somewhat of an influx of listings due to the backlog created by Stage 4 restrictions, i.e. properties that would have hit the market but have been delayed until physical inspections are re-permitted.
The bottom line for us Victorians, regardless of political leanings, revolves around all of us doing our part to smother the virus and cultivate enough confidence in policymakers to allow our collective train to pick up steam. Once we hit that point, just watch the pace we surge forward at.
Luke Liberati | Sales Consultant
B.Bus(EcoFin)
p: 0429 579 878
